By Toby McIntosh
The World Bank says it is standing firm on its objections to the Tanzanian government’s policy of expelling pregnant girls from school and the 2018 law criminalizing criticism of official statistics.
A Bank’s position “has not changed,” according to a three-sentence statement provided April 17 to eyeonglobaltransparency.net.
The Bank comment comes in the wake of an April 13 announcement by Tanzanian finance ministry officials stating that the Bank has agreed to a $1.7 billion financing deal to fund various projects during fiscal year 2019-2020. The commitment was reached during talks between Tanzania’s finance and planning minister Philip Mpango and the World Bank Vice President for Africa Hafez Ghalem in Washington, according to the statement, as summarized in media reports, such as in The Citizen.
The positive spin by the government did not mention the Bank’s policy concerns, which are holding up a $300 million education loan and $50 million for the Bureau of National Statistics.
The government statement mischaracterizes the situation in several ways.
The $1.7 billion is an overall allotment that Tanzanian could receive from the International Development Association (IDA), the part of the World Bank that helps the world’s poorest countries. The figure is based on a Bank scoring system (not negotiations) and it could be less if agreement is not reached on the pregnancy and statistics issues. (The Bank also has expressed concern about treatment of the LBTQI community in Tanzania.)
Bank Issues Statement
The Bank’s April 17 statement is a subtle swipe at the government’s effort to paint a portrait of success in its relations with the Bank and a reiteration of its positions. The Bank said:
The World Bank’s position on Tanzania has not changed. New IDA funding to Tanzania will require the fulfillment of commitments made by the Government to the World Bank in our ongoing dialogue. We remain committed to our partnership with Tanzania and its people.
Bank-government discussions are continuing. A Bank official said there has been progress but declined to characterize what commitments have been made.
The government April 13 said that its agreement with the Bank includes a $400M loan for education, $300M for a poverty reduction program, and financing for infrastructure, but such specifics have yet to be determined by the Bank.
The World Bank Board last year delayed consideration of the $300M education loan to Tanzania because of concerns about the government’s policy of expelling pregnant girls from school, eyeonglobaltransparency.net reported in October.
Regarding the statistics law, the government has said it would develop implementing regulations, which critics say such interpretations are likely to be inadequate to mitigate a law that criminalizes the dissemination of “any statistical information which is intended to invalidate, distort or discredit official statistics.” Offenses are punishable by a $6,000 fine or a three-year prison sentence.
“Our concerns about the amended Statistics Act, which we expressed in our statement of October 2018, still stand,” a Bank spokesman told eyeonglobaltransparency.net March 15.
Could IMF Officials Be Jailed?
Both the Bank and the International Monetary Fund have criticized Tanzanian economic projections.
The IMF on April 9 cut its forecast for Tanzania’s economic growth in 2019 and 2020 to around 4 percent, down from a previous prediction of 6.6 percent.
The Bank in January predicted that 2109 growth will be 6.8 percent.
The government estimate is higher, 7.3 percent.
The IMF in late 2018 said it also has questions about the statistics law, but has kept its objections low profile.
The topic might have come up when the Board on March 18 discussed the Article IV staff report about Tanzania. Article IV reports are comprehensive evaluations done by Bank staff that summarize the economic conditions in member countries.
Whether the report will be made public is yet unknown. Governments may veto their release, although in recent years that has been strongly discouraged.
In the past, the Tanzanian report has been released, the last one being from 2016.
