The refusal by the Tanzanian government to release data about the number of cases and deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic for six weeks has drawn only mild criticism from international organizations.
The near silence of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank comes as they provide Tanzania with millions of dollars in recovery aid.
There are some hints of dissatisfaction, however.
The lack of data is “making it difficult to assess the current situation,” according to a statement provided June 12 to EYE from the IMF.
And the World Bank, in a recent economic report commented, “Greater transparency can increase the effectiveness of Tanzania’s public health response, allowing for more targeted measures and actions.”
Transparency Gap
Not since early May has the government issued new statistics on the pandemic.
The World Health Organization issues daily situation reports. The one for May 8 showed a total of 509 cases, with 29 new cases and 21 deaths, numbers supplied by the Tanzanian government. The same numbers have been included in subsequent WHO reports since then, with no asterisk.
Tanzanian President John Magufuli has exploiting the information vacuum, proclaiming on June 7, “Corona in our country has been removed by the powers of God.”
Critics believe the infection numbers are much higher. Neighboring countries have reported daily on higher numbers of cases. Kenya on May 14 had 3,475.
While WHO does not appear to have criticized the Tanzanian government for failing to issue regular data on Covid-19, it hinted at dissatisfaction in a June 14 statement to EYE.
According to a WHO spokesperson, “WHO has noted that neighbouring countries have expressed concern over tests they have conducted on truck drivers coming from Tanzania, who have tested positive for COVID-19.”
Seeming to encourage more transparency, the spokesperson also said, somewhat ambiguously:
WHO and a number of key partners continue to provide technical support to the Tanzanian government’s response to COVID-19 through its membership in various technical committees. Furthermore, in line with the International Health Regulation rules, WHO has continued to recommend to Tanzania and all Member States that they scale up surveillance and that the regular sharing of disaggregated data, is the best way to inform an effective management of outbreaks.
That seems to be as far as WHO will go, although the agency rebuked Tanzania in September 2019 for not sharing information regarding a death from Ebola-like symptoms.
Tanzania Getting Aid Without Transparency Conditions
The transparency gap does not appear to have affected the IMF’s approval of a $14.3 million loan for Tanzania.
And the World Bank allocated Tanzania a $3.9 million grant from the insurance window of the Pandemic Emergency Facility (PEF). The Bank is in discussions with the government “on how best to use these resources in its COVID response,” according to a Bank spokesperson, who declined to further address whether transparency could be a condition.
In addition, Tanzania has requested reallocation of $6 million from the Health Basket Fund jointly financed by health development partners, including the World Bank, from its ongoing Primary Healthcare Program for Results, the Bank spokesperson said.
The government is also negotiating for help from the G-20 nations and others, Reuters reported
Criticisms Leveled about Lack of Transparency
Strong criticism for the lack of transparency has come from within the country and outside it.
“Rather than putting people on lockdown, we have put data on lockdown,” wrote Aiden Eyakuze on June 10. He is the Executive Director of Twaweza East Africa, a leading civil society organization.
Eyakuze said models had predicted a far higher number of cases than are being reported. He said the number of tests reported as having been carried out in Tanzania is just 652, compared to over 100,000 in neighbouring Uganda, 95,000 in Kenya and 75,000 in Rwanda by June 5. Twaweza on April 29 called for more transparency.
“Detailed statistics, broken down by region, must be released immediately. Government briefings – allowing questions from the media – should take place on a daily basis,” wrote Zitto Kabwe, member of Parliament and leader of the opposition Alliance for Change and Transparency party, in a May 25 article headlined Bumbling, irrational, deadly: The Tanzanian president is getting the Covid-19 response all wrong. Also see another of his commentaries, from May 27, Tanzanian president’s handling of pandemic is the epitome of incompetence.
“The Tanzanian government’s tepid response to COVID-19 and seeming lack of transparency over coronavirus cases is fueling concern that it is covering up the true extent of the pandemic, according to doctors and health experts in the East African country,” according to a June 14 article in The New Humanitarian.
“There is no information,” said one specialist, a health adviser to the government quoted by The New Humanitarian. The source said further, “This leads to a tremendous amount of rumours and fears among the population – it’s disastrous for this epidemic.”
The government response “has been characterized by conspiracy theories, tight control over information, and aversion to science” according to a May 27 article by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, Implications of Tanzania’s Bungled Response to Covid-19.
“The WHO and Africa CDC should consider offering embeds to the Ministry of Health and other Tanzanian government offices to increase information sharing and help align the country’s approach with regional and continental strategies, urged authors Judd Devermont, director of the Africa Program at the Washington, D.C., think tank, and Marielle Harris, a program manager with the CSIS Africa Program.
Oblique Language from IMF Followed by Some Clarification
Notwithstanding the well-known controversy, both the IMF and the World Bank have used oblique diplomatic language, arguably misleading, in describing the Tanzanian government’s response to the pandemic and the lack of information.
The IMF’s June 10 announcement stepped delicately around Tanzania’s handling of the virus and doesn’t mention the reporting gap. The IMF generally praised the government, saying:
The authorities have implemented containment measures and avoided an economic lockdown. They remain vigilant to the risk of spiraling infections and uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.
In a document about the loan, the IMF says,
As of May 8, 509 cases and 21 deaths have been reported. Since then, the authorities have not reported new cases or deaths and there is no information regarding the number of tests conducted. As in other countries, the data may significantly underestimate the true figure owing to lack of data on testing and deaths at home.
Besides failing to note the information gap explicitly, the IMF’s language could be misinterpreted to mean that no new cases had occurred and that Tanzania’s data collection problems paralleled others.
In an expanded comment, an IMF spokesperson on June 12 cited transparency as a problem, telling EYE:
While the hospital system is not overwhelmed and there is no evidence of spiraling cases, there has been no data on cases and deaths since early May, making it difficult to assess the current situation. In any case, the authorities have been encouraged to ensure sufficient budget allocations to deal with the effects of the pandemic and cooperate closely with the WHO and related parties to mitigate risks.
By granting the loan, however, the IMF seems to decided that a lack of transparency should not hold up aid.
IMF emergency assistance is available to countries that have “urgent balance of payments needs” and are “pursuing appropriate policies to address the crisis,” according to the IMF website. The IMF’s online summary of Tanzania’s actions credits the governments with closing bars and restaurants and releasing millions for health spending.
Unmentioned was transparency or Magufuli’s attack in early May on test results. He faulted the National Laboratory, saying swabs from a live goat, a quail and a fruit had returned positive results for Covid-19. He ordered a criminal probe and created an investigative committee. The government told the Bank in a May 27 letter of intent that “our ability to track the outbreak has been affected by insufficient capacity to test and deaths at homes, sometimes away from medical facilities.”
The IMF Executive Board approved debt relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust to provide $14.3 million over the next 4 months, and potentially up to $25.7 million over the next 23 months.
World Bank Issues Subtle Warning, Supports Transparency
Similarly, the World Bank, in its latest economic forecast for Tanzania, makes not specific comments on the Magufuli’s policies, but suggests that doing more to fight the pandemic would help the economy and describes the benefits of transparency.
The tiptoeing comments in the June 8 press release appear designed to encourage more action, but it remains to be seen if the Bank will attach conditions to aid being sought by Tanzania.
The Bank’s forecast “assumes” more government actions and warns of economic consequences if “additional policy response is delayed….” There is not specific contingency analysis in the report about the consequences of not implementing additional measures. The Bank predicts growth of 2.5 percent “with substantial downside risk.”
“The Government of Tanzania has taken several steps to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak but can still do more given its favorable macroeconomic conditions,” according to the Bank’s analysis, which does specify some of the possible policy actions.
To support a robust health and economic policy response, Tanzania has in its favor a considerable fiscal space relative to other countries in the region, high international reserves, and favorable commodity price movements. Tanzania has enhanced preparedness and containment capacity through measures to strengthen detection and surveillance at airports, border crossings, and other points of entry, and is training health care staff on case management, risk communication, and community engagement. The government has implemented several measures aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19, including closing schools and colleges, suspending all public meetings, sporting events, and all international passenger flights. Additionally, the government has encouraged hand washing and identified several public and private hospitals that will serve as isolation centers for people infected with coronavirus.
The Bank’s suggestions read like a list of action typical for most nations dealing with the pandemic:
Government should mobilize adequate financial resources to ensure equitable access to priority facilities and medical services. The priorities should include: provision of COVID-19 testing kits, Protective Personal Equipments (PPEs) and supplies for infection, prevention and control; procurement of additional medical equipment for critical care including ensuring oxygen supply; refurbishment of facilities to provide critical care; and training as well as hiring additional medical personnel. In doing so, it is important that the delivery of essential health services is prioritized and sustained to avoid excess non-COVID-19 morbidity and mortality and ensuring timely reporting of COVID-19 related information for policy-makers and the population at large.
However, the Bank report also makes a pitch for government transparency:
Greater transparency can increase the effectiveness of Tanzania’s public health response, allowing for more targeted measures and actions. A stronger information base would facilitate greater collaboration and partnership with relevant local, regional and international stakeholders. Transparency should also be the cornerstone of the economic relief and recovery measures. Without adequate and consistent public estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19 on lives and livelihoods of various groups, and of the resources available and the financing gaps, the response can only be partially effective and non-targeted. Moreover, the risk of not reaching those in real need will be higher. Stronger transparency also works as a signaling strategy. Consistent reporting of cases is needed to convince the public that the pandemic has “passed its peak” and to give them confidence to resume activities. By making all the relevant information public and by communicating in a timely and orderly manner, the government can signal to the private sector and to other governments that public policies are aligned to reduce the number of cases and deaths, and to allow business and households to operate and work again in a safe environment. As mentioned in Box 1, this strategy can help bring new visitors in the country. It also can accelerate the recovery of domestic demand, and in particular, of domestic private investment, and thus, the creation of jobs.
